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So it all comes down to this – the final Nations League clash of the campaign, one that will decide whether England make the final four, suffer relegation or stay precisely where they are.
UEFA’s new competition has quickly grown in popularity since its launch and Gareth Southgate is now faced with a key chance to continue the momentum England built throughout the World Cup in Russia by once again steering his side to the latter stages of an international tournament.
Last time Croatia and England met, it ended in a scoreless draw as both sides cancelled each other out in Rijeka. So what will decide the outcome this time around? Football FanCast take a look at four key factors…
The Key Battle – Raheem Sterling vs Tin Jedvaj
Raheem Sterling may be the more offensive talent on paper but left-back Tin Jedvaj managed to match half of the Manchester City star’s entire return for England in just one match on Thursday night, bagging a brace against Spain that included a stoppage time winner to take the Nations League group to its final game.
Scoring goals, or creating them, isn’t something the versatile defender is usually known for, but he’ll certainly be confident in his abilities going forward on Sunday and Sterling will need to make sure he doesn’t do anything to make the 22-year-old even more ambitious in that regard, like leaving him room to attack on the overlap.
For Sterling though, it’s an important occasion too. He ended a horrid scoring drought last time out in the 3-2 win over Spain and is expected to only elevate his importance to this England side over the coming years. Likewise, aside from Dele Alli he’s probably developed the best playing relationship with Harry Kane of anyone in the squad – England need their skipper to shake off recent cobwebs and put in a strong performance, and Sterling can play a key part in that as chief support act.
The Key Dynamic – Midfield Balance
England were completely dominated by Croatia’s midfield during their semi-final meeting at the World Cup, Luka Modric’s control of the game only increasing throughout, and Southgate sought to arrest that during the scoreless draw in Rijeka by changing the shape of his team while selecting a far more solid midfield that contained both Jordan Henderson and Eric Dier.
The pair certainly reduced Croatia’s capacity to keep the ball and play through England, but England will be looking for a little more this time around at home in front of the Wembley crowd. That may require Alli to come into the midfield alongside Ross Barkley to provide extra goal threat and creativity, but regardless of personnel the crux of the issue stems around balance.
England’s midfield needs to nullify Croatia’s in the same manner they did last time, but provide more going forward as well.
The Deciding Factor – Will 4-3-3 create a stalemate?
The recent switch to 4-3-3 showed real pragmatism on Southgate’s part, something he should be lauded for. Most pertinently, he’s not stuck to England’s World Cup formation out of nostalgia, stubbornness or blind faith and instead recognised its biggest flaws, while adopting a system that is dominant throughout the top end of the Premier League right now – shared by Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City.
It certainly did the trick last time England faced Croatia, solving many of the issues that unwound the Three Lions at the end of the World Cup, but it also created something of a stalemate and perhaps that was inevitable considering Sunday’s visitors use exactly the same setup and boast a similar calibre of player.
Check out Playmaker FC’s Tom Skinner’s unfiltered take on Wayne Rooney’s England legacy in the video above…
The coming clash then, looks bound to be a tight one. But whether it comes from a moment of individual brilliance, a mistake or a slight tweak to the system as the game goes on, England must find a way to break the deadlock and stop themselves being cancelled out by the visitors.
The Impact Subs – Jesse Lingard vs Nikola Vlasic
Jadon Sancho played the full ninety minutes against USA in midweek, suggesting he’ll sit Sunday’s game out, whereas Jesse Lingard was spared the final half hour so he looks to be the man Southgate will turn to if he needs to freshen up England’s flanks.
The Manchester United star sometimes lacks the natural pace to make an impact from out wide but he’s delivered for Southgate in plenty of big moments and after scoring on Thursday will enter the Croatia clash with heightened confidence.
Nikola Vlasic, meanwhile, has made it into this Croatia squad through a strong start to the season while on loan at CSKA Moscow. The Everton winger has bagged three goals and one assist in eleven top flight outings while also scoring against Real Madrid in the Champions League, so he’s in hot form at the moment. Likewise, the 21-year-old will want to impress in front of an English audience, knowing it will include Toffees fans.
