Sports Illustrated
Injuries made what could’ve been a special season in Ames, Iowa, and Iowa State finished with something of a whimper, going 10–9 in its final 19 games and getting blitzed by Ole Miss in the Round of 32 after starting 15–1. That said, it’s an incredible testament to the program T.J. Otzelberger has built that there’s even a twinge of disappointment surrounding a 25-win campaign.
Iowa State finally made the jump offensively last season under Otzelberger, ranking in the top 20 nationally in offensive efficiency after three finishes outside the top 50 to start his tenure. The biggest driver was the preternatural shotmaking of now-Denver Nuggets guard Curtis Jones, but other key offensive engines are back. The Cyclones held off plenty of interested suitors to keep Joshua Jefferson, the only player in the country who over a full season averaged at least 13 points, seven rebounds, three assists and two steals per game. He may well be the most-underrated player in the country and could have a huge senior year.
Tamin Lipsey’s offensive game stagnated some in 2024–25, in part due to injuries and in part due to Jones and Keshon Gilbert’s importance in the offense. The Cyclones need a healthier, more consistent Lipsey in his senior year on that end of the floor, though his impact defensively and as a leader show up far beyond the box score. He has been essential in building this program up.
Sharpshooting wing/forward Milan Momcilovic could be well positioned for a jump as a junior as well. The Cyclones offense sputtered after he went down with a hand injury last year. At his best he’s one of the top floor spacers in the country and could play his way back onto NBA draft boards with a big season.
Those three returners give the Cyclones impressive continuity to go with one of the best defensive systems in the sport. The floor is high; how the newcomers fit in likely determine the ceiling.
Projected Starting Lineup
PG: Tamin Lipsey
SG: Nate Heise
SF: Milan Momcilovic
PF: Joshua Jefferson
C: Blake Buchanan
Key Reserves: G Dominick Nelson, G Jamarion Batemon, F/C Eric Mulder
Key Additions
The center spot is an essential one in Otzelberger’s defensive scheme. The likely starter is Blake Buchanan, a transfer from Virginia who started 22 games a year ago. He’s a big body at 6' 11" that plays hard and is a pretty effective finisher around the rim, though he won’t provide the same post scoring boost Dishon Jackson brought. Fort Wayne transfer Eric Mulder will likely plug in there some as well.
Between Jones and Gilbert, Iowa State graduates over 30 points per game and its two most creative on-ball scorers. That creates a huge opportunity for transfer Dominick Nelson, a wiry slashing guard who averaged 14 points per game for a 25-win Utah Valley squad. Freshmen Jamarion Batemon and Killyan Toure both have major long-term upside in the backcourt, with Batemon likely the more game-ready option.
Causes for Concern
Nelson wasn’t the most efficient scorer in the world at Utah Valley, posting a sub-100 offensive rating and shooting just 25% from three. With Lipsey being more of a game manager than a shifty scoring threat, this Cyclones backcourt is crying out for another big-time bucket-getter. On paper, I’m not sure Nelson is quite that guy. If he isn’t, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Iowa State offense take steps back even with Momcilovic and Jefferson taking big steps forward. And if that happens, the Cyclones may look more like the 13- and 14-loss squads from Otzelberger’s first two years than the top-three seeds they’ve earned the last two years.
The Bottom Line
Otzelberger has earned the benefit of the doubt with his transfer portal evaluations after some great under-the-radar hits in recent years, but this crop of newcomers doesn’t look great on paper. The three key pieces Iowa State retained give them the necessary nucleus to compete for another protected seed in the NCAA tournament though, and if Nelson and Buchanan hit, this ranking could look far too low in retrospect.
