Third Quarter: Rivalry Week Meets the Playoff Push
This is always the best time of the year in the sport. Now it’s even better, with many ancient rivalries serving dual purposes: bestowing bragging rights impacting College Football Playoff bids. In years past, a handful of rivalry games were the final bridge to cross to remain in the national championship hunt; this year there are no fewer than a dozen with playoff implications.
It’s Feast Week all right.
The Dash sprints through 20 games in the third and fourth quarters, offering canny context on what the games mean and piercing insight into who will win:
Texas Longhorns at Texas A&M Aggies (21)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: Texas leads 76–37–5. First: Texas 38, Texas A&M 0, in 1894. Latest: Texas 27, Texas A&M 25, in 2011. Upper hand: Up for grabs since they haven’t played in 13 years. Line: Texas by 6, per DraftKings.
Stakes: Winner gets its first-ever berth in the SEC championship game. If that’s Texas, it should lock up a College Football Playoff spot. If that’s Texas A&M, it keeps alive bid-thief aspirations. And there is the psychic payload that comes with the resumption of a bad-blood feud that intensified when A&M left the Big 12, then intensified again when Texas followed the Aggies to the SEC. A&M’s displeasure with the Longhorns’ arrival was such that the league scheduled this rivalry resumption game in College Station, not Austin, as appeasement. Succinctly: This is huge.
Dash pick: Texas 28, Texas A&M 19.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Clemson Tigers (22)
When: Noon ET Saturday. Series: Clemson leads 73–43–4. First: South Carolina 12, Clemson 6, in 1896. Latest: Clemson 16, South Carolina 7, last year. Upper hand: Clemson has won eight of the last nine. Line: Clemson by 2.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: Both teams are harboring outside playoff hopes. The 8–3 Gamecocks need a lot of help, while the 9–2 Tigers just need the Syracuse Orange to beat the Miami Hurricanes to put them in the ACC championship game. This is the first meeting where both have been ranked since 2013.
Dash pick: South Carolina 27, Clemson 24.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans (23)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, which is a desecration of everything holy. When this game is played in Los Angeles, it should always begin in daylight and end in darkness local time. Series: Notre Dame leads 51–38–5. First: Notre Dame 13, USC 12, in 1926. Latest: Notre Dame 48, USC 20, last year. Upper hand: The Fighting Irish have won five of the last six. Line: Notre Dame by 7.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: Notre Dame could maybe take a loss and still stay in the bracket, but far better to skip the Selection Sunday stress, win the game and lock up a first-round game at home. USC is trying to salvage a 6–5 season that has not gone as planned; beating UCLA and Notre Dame back-to-back would provide positive momentum into 2025.
Dash pick: Notre Dame 28, USC 17.
Michigan Wolverines at Ohio State Buckeyes (24)
When: Noon ET Saturday, as it is written in the ancient manuscripts. Series: Michigan leads 61–52–6. First: Michigan 34, Ohio State 0, in 1897. Latest: Michigan 30, Ohio State 24, last year. Upper hand: Wolverines have won three in a row, as you may have heard. Line: Ohio State by 21, per DraftKings.
Stakes: This shouldn’t be a close game. But until the Buckeyes slay their personal dragon—like it’s for sure dead, not moving and not breathing, roll credits—the tension and pressure will hover like an anvil. Michigan can reframe its lousy season in one afternoon.
Dash pick: Ohio State 24, Michigan 7.
Tennessee Volunteers at Vanderbilt Commodores (25)
When: Noon ET Saturday. Series: Tennessee leads 80–33–5. First: Vanderbilt 12, Tennessee 4, in 1892. Latest: Tennessee 48, Vanderbilt 24, last year. Upper hand: Tennessee has won the last five meetings. The fact it lost the three previous is a dark and shameful chapter in Big Orange history. Line: Tennessee by 11, per DraftKings.
Stakes: This is one of the biggest meetings ever between these two. The Vols are trying to lock up a playoff bid, but the Dores are more competitive than they’ve been in a decade. They’re 6–5 with wins over Alabama, Auburn and Virginia Tech, and gave Texas some trouble in Nashville, as well. The stands will still be awash in orange, but perhaps a little less than in most years.
Dash pick: Tennessee 24, Vanderbilt 21.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats (27)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: Arizona leads 51–45–1. First: Arizona State 11, Arizona 2, in 1899. Latest: Arizona 59, Arizona State 23, last year. Upper hand: Arizona has won the last two meetings. Line: Arizona State by 8.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: In all but one remote scenario in this silly league, the Devils are in the Big 12 title game with a win. That would cap a meteoric rise from a 3–9 2023 season that ended with a blowout in this Territorial Cup game. The season has been a bust for Arizona, but the Wildcats are not without talent—and there is no better way to soften the tone of a disappointing year than by derailing your rival’s dream season.
Dash pick: Arizona State 35, Arizona 21.
Kansas State Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones (28)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: Iowa State leads 53–50–4. First: Iowa State 10, Kansas State 7, in 1917. Latest: Iowa State 42, Kansas State 35, last year in a blizzard. Upper hand: Cyclones have won three of the last four. Line: Iowa State by 3, per DraftKings.
Stakes: “Farmageddon” always matters in the heartland, but this one more than most. An Iowa State victory gets them in the Big 12 championship game in most scenarios. It would be the Cyclones’ second appearance in the game in five seasons, but would cap a nice comeback from a three-year malaise in between. For K-State, their very slim Big 12 championship game chances should be known by the time this game kicks off.
Dash pick: Kansas State 25, Iowa State 24.
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers (29)
When: 7 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: Purdue leads 77–42–6. First: Purdue 60, Indiana 0, in 1891. Latest: Purdue 35, Indiana 31, last year. Upper hand: Purdue has won three in a row and five of the last six, but that was pre-Cignetti. Line: Indiana by 28.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: The Old Oaken Bucket game has rarely been worthy of prime time, and truth be told, this game probably won’t be, either. But Indiana has unprecedented playoff relevance that makes this a must-win game. Purdue is a dysfunctional bunch that is winless against FBS competition, but showed some resolve in losing by only seven at Michigan State on Friday night.
Dash pick: Indiana 42, Purdue 17.
Nevada Wolf Pack at UNLV Rebels (30)
When: 8 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: Nevada leads 28–21. First: Nevada 30, UNLV 28, in 1969. Latest: UNLV 45, Nevada 27, last year. Upper hand: Rebels have won the last two, but the two have split the last 12 meetings. Line: UNLV by 17.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: UNLV is trying to lock up a spot in the Mountain West championship game and, at 9–2, stay in the hunt for the CFP Group of 5 bid. Nevada is just trying to reverse course from its current five-game losing streak. But when the Fremont Cannon is at stake, you throw out the record books.
Dash pick: UNLV 37, Nevada 16.
